A Fundamental Weakness In Human Judgement…

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This weekend’s agreement on the price of oil highlights a fundamental weakness in human judgement.

A very large % of the population assumes that what has happened in the past will simply continue without ceasing, such were the estimates about the price of oil’s free fall.

While it is easy to see why many come to this conclusion, what many forget is these phenomenon do not happen a vacuum.

Those responsible for oil’s price drop and those directly impacted by it, realized the current course of events, if continued, did not serve their best interests.

The same thing happened in the late 70’s. At the time, there was a widely held belief that double digit inflation would simply continue without ceasing.

Double digit inflation stopped because one man, Paul Volcker, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, had the ability to stop it.

It was painful, as we watched interest rates climb towards 20 percent and watched the economy temporarily take a turn for the worse, but his policies ended double digit inflation and set a standard for future Fed policy.

In a similar way, many felt Israel and Egypt’s decades long conflict would never end, however one individual, Jimmy Carter, decided he was going to do something about it.

Because of his involvement, we had the Camp David accords. As a result, the decades long conflict between these two nations did end.

So here’s the takeaway, before you conclude that the future will merely be a continuation of the present, remember the lessons of history and you won’t buy into this faulty thinking.

And, the next time someone says,

If present trends continue…

Or simply assumes present trends will continue, ask him,

When was the last time present trends continued without ceasing?

The 2020 drop in the price of oil appears to be ending.

The double digit inflation of the 70’s ended.

The decades long conflict between Egypt and Israel ended.

The Cold War ended and the Berlin Wall came down.

The horrors of polio ended when a vaccine was invented.

And, God willing, a vaccine for Covid-19 will be invented.



Clark Finnical is the author of Job Hunting Secrets (from someone who’s been there), LinkedIn Strategies to Take Your Career to the Next Level12 Lies Told to Job Seekers ; and How to Stand Out: From All of the Other Candidates

Photo by Albert Dera on Unsplash

Article originally appeared, in thewiseramerican.com